21 Oct 2026
Current climate policies put the world on track for 2.8°C of warming. A new UN report explores how temperatures could fall after exceeding 1.5°C. LMU climate scientist Julia Pongratz co-authored the report.
Under current climate policies, the Earth could warm by 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century, with temperatures continuing to rise thereafter. Even if all announced national climate action plans and comparable additional efforts were fully implemented, warming would still reach 2.6°C. These are the findings of the Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, published on 21 October by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
The report also examines how a return to the 1.5°C target could be achieved. In the most favourable scenario examined, global temperatures rise to 1.7–1.8°C by around mid-century and then fall back to 1.5°C or below by 2100, with a probability of approximately 50 per cent. Such a temporary exceedance of the temperature threshold is referred to as “overshoot”. Achieving this would require drastic emissions cuts: 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, in each case relative to 2025 levels. In addition, around 320 gigatonnes of CO₂ would need to be permanently removed from the atmosphere over the course of this century—approximately eight times global CO₂ emissions in 2024. However, it remains uncertain whether removal on this scale can be achieved.
The report also shows that effective climate action is possible: renewable energy has been deployed much more rapidly than expected since the Paris Agreement. Policy measures have also already delivered measurable emissions reductions in numerous countries and economic sectors. However, these achievements would need to be scaled up substantially worldwide to keep the rise in global temperatures as low as possible.
CO₂ Removal: How Reliable Are Natural Carbon Sinks?
Prof. Dr Julia Pongratz also contributed to the report. She holds the Chair of Physical Geography and Land Use Systems at LMU Munich and is spokesperson for the CDRterra research programme, which investigates the potential, limitations and impacts of removing CO₂ from the atmosphere. A key focus of her research is the interaction between land use, vegetation and climate. These interactions play an important role, particularly in long-term CO₂ removal: forests can absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere and store carbon. However, increasing drought, heat and other climate impacts can weaken their carbon storage capacity or cause previously stored carbon to be released back into the atmosphere.
This highlights a central challenge: the greater the global warming, the more CO₂ will subsequently need to be removed to bring temperatures back down. At the same time, climate impacts can undermine the effectiveness of individual removal methods. This makes rapid emissions reductions and early, forward-looking planning for CO₂ removal all the more important.
Further information:
https://www.unep.org/en/publications/report/emissions-gap-report-2026
Süddeutsche Zeitung:
Die Zeit:
https://www.zeit.de/wissenschaft/2026-10/erde-steuert-laut-un-bericht-auf-2-8-grad-erwaermung-zu
Tagesschau: