10 Nov 2026
The expansion of solar and wind power, in particular, is making a difference. However, this must be accelerated in order to reduce global CO2 emissions in the long term.
Total global CO₂ emissions are projected to reach 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, slightly above the 42.8 billion tonnes recorded last year. This is according to the latest report by the Global Carbon Project, published as a preprint in the journal discussion forum Earth System Science Data Discussions. The Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) contributed to the report, with researchers Prof. Dr. Julia Pongratz, Dr. Clemens Schwingshackl, Tobias Nützel, Dr. Léa Olivier and Gereon Seeberg. Global emissions from fossil fuels are set to decline this year, driven by strong growth in renewable energy and the geopolitical situation surrounding Iran. At the same time, emissions from land-use change are increasing, while climate change and climate variability are weakening natural carbon sinks. As CO₂ continues to accumulate rapidly in the atmosphere, the impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly severe. A faster and sustained expansion of clean technologies could help bring global emissions down within just a few years.
Although global energy demand continues to rise, emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4 per cent in 2026 compared with the previous year, reaching 38.2 billion tonnes. According to the Global Carbon Project report, this decline is primarily attributable to a significant drop in oil consumption (-1.9 per cent) – likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the conflict involving Iran. At the same time, renewable energy sources are meeting a substantial share of the increase in energy demand. As a related study published in Nature Climate Change shows, solar and wind power, together with electric vehicles, now offset around two-thirds of the CO₂ emissions that would otherwise have resulted from this increase in demand. In 2026, this avoided emissions total is projected to reach 0.5 billion tonnes, bringing the cumulative amount of avoided CO₂ emissions to 4.6 billion tonnes. However, the report also emphasises that the expansion of clean energy is not yet progressing fast enough to bring about a sustained reduction in global fossil CO₂ emissions. To limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the world has a remaining carbon budget of just 150 billion tonnes of CO₂. At current emission levels, this budget would be exhausted in less than four years.
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Natural carbon sinks and the impacts of climate change and climate variability
In addition to emissions from fossil fuels, the report assesses the planet's natural CO₂ sinks, including land and oceans. Over the past decade, these sinks have absorbed 49 per cent of human-caused emissions. The amount of CO₂ they absorb has remained relatively stable for around a decade. However, climate change is negatively affecting their capacity to store carbon: over the past decade, the land carbon sink was 19 per cent weaker than it would have been without the impacts of climate change, while the ocean sink was approximately 8 per cent weaker. Following a substantial weakening during the 2023/2024 El Niño event, the capacity of the land carbon sink has since recovered. However, the effects of the emerging El Niño conditions in 2026–2027 will only become apparent next year.
Land-use emissions and CO₂ removal
The reason total emissions increased in 2026 despite lower fossil fuel emissions is a rise in emissions from land-use change. "Fires in drained peatlands and forest degradation in equatorial Asia were the main drivers of the increase in emissions. The first signs of the developing El Niño are already becoming apparent," explains Dr. Clemens Schwingshackl from LMU Munich, who coordinates the assessment of land-use emissions.
Afforestation and reforestation removed 2.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ from the atmosphere per year between 2016 and 2025. However, emissions from deforestation were almost twice as high. In 2025, novel carbon dioxide removal approaches – particularly biochar and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) – accounted for 2 million tonnes of CO₂.
"Over the course of an entire year, novel carbon dioxide removal approaches offset barely as much CO₂ as is emitted globally by fossil fuel sources in just 30 minutes," says Prof. Julia Pongratz, a geographer at LMU Munich and a member of the report's core team. "Rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions and an end to deforestation must remain our top priorities. At the same time, we need to expand both nature-based and novel carbon dioxide removal capacities if we are to offset hard-to-abate residual emissions and achieve greenhouse gas neutrality."
About the Global Carbon Project
The Global Carbon Project is an international research project of the Future Earth research initiative for global sustainability. An international team of more than 130 climate scientists produces the report, which is updated annually. This year's edition will be presented on 10 November 2026 at the 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye.
Researchers from German-speaking countries contributing to the report are affiliated with the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (Bremerhaven); ETH Zurich; the Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon (Geesthacht); the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW); Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU); the Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology (Bremen); the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (Jena); the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and the Universities of Bern and Bremen. They contributed ocean observations, model simulations of the ocean, land and atmosphere, as well as various analyses.
Additional materials for media professionals
The Global Carbon Project team provides detailed information, key messages, publications, data and figures at the following link:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/18Y7QmmfngixnlD1kttBCX8JtuvWMbTOC?usp=sharing
Original publications
Global Carbon Project report in Earth System Science Data Discussions:
https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-895
Further information
Tagesschau:
https://www.tagesschau.de/wissen/klima/emissionen-klimawandel-global-carbon-budget-100.html
ZDF heute:
https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/klima-co2-emissionen-global-carbon-project-100.html
Süddeutsch Zeitung:
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/projekte/artikel/wissen/klima-emissionen-bericht-klimakrise-e793622/?reduced=true